Is he really Werth $126 Million?

The Washington Nationals, once again,  showed their commitment to mediocrity and Scott Boras, Werth's agent, showed why he is still the best in the business. How is it possible that Jayson Werth could command a $126 Million deal over 7 years? Here's a better question...why would Werth leave a perennial powerhouse and World Series contender like the Phillies to go to one of the worst organizations in the MLB? The answer is....money, of course. I just don't see the upside for the Nationals as this might turn out to be the most puzzling and lopsided deals of the 2010-2011 MLB off-season.

Let's analyze this perplexing move by the Washington Nationals. First of all, they just lost Adam Dunn, who opted to sign with the Chicago White Sox. Secondly, besides Ryan Zimmerman (.307, 25 HRs-85 RBI in '10), the Nationals have nothing in their lineup. Who will Werth drive in? Better yet, who is going to drive in Werth? He decided to go from a lineup that featured Howard, Utley, Rollins, Victorino, Polanco, and Ibanez, to a lineup with Kennedy, Willingham, Morgan, and Desmond??? Say what?

Jayson Werth was always an overrated fantasy player, but he just became the most overrated player in the MLB for the 2011 season. He will most likely project at .275, 20 HRs, and 85 RBI. He simply will not see the same pitches that he has seen over the last few years in Philly. Opposing pitchers can afford to pitch around him and put him on base, which means that he will swing at balls outside of the zone. Werth will not be a prime fantasy option in 2011...trust me.

Werth's 2010 numbers were similar to those of several other players in his salary bracket. Werth's 2010 salary ($7,500,000) was high for a guy of his caliber, but his baseball stats were similar to those of Casey McGehee ($427,500), Nick Swisher ($6,850,000), Aubrey Huff ($3,000,000), Andre Ethier ($5,750,000), and Shin-Soo Choo ($461,100). Choo hit for a higher average than Werth, Swisher hit more HRs, and McGehee, Swisher, Huff, and Choo all drove in more runs in '10. In any 2011 auction fantasy league, Werth won't be selected by any professional level fantasy leaguers. There's no value there. Werth is now in a salary bracket ($18 Million/ year) with the likes of Ryan Howard, Torii Hunter, Miguel Cabrera, Ichiro, Matt Holliday, and Mark Teixeira, but his production is nowhere near these guys.

The Nationals made a big mistake and they will pay, literally, for it. Werth is a good middle-round fantasy selection, a guy that can be your 3rd OF or even fill-in for your 3rd OF on occasion. He is, by no means, a top 5 round pick in any format.

And, to answer my own question and the same one that most fantasy players are asking themselves...NO, he is not Werth $126 Million!

The Phenom

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