Saturday, February 5, 2011

Michael Young...the model of consistency

Why are the Texas Rangers shopping Michael Young? Well, the answer is simple. They just signed 3B Adrian Beltre and have plenty of DH prospects on their roster. Young would be sharing time with someone, which doesn't make a ton of sense to me. I mean...where is the loyalty to a guy that has been as consistent and faithful as any MLB player in recent history.

Apparently, the Rangers are looking to deal Young prior to the start of the 2011 season. In terms of fantasy value, Young is a solid 3B who can be counted on to produce a .300+ average, 20+ HRs, and 85-90 rbi's. Young is not a top 5 fantasy prospect by any means, but he is in the top 10. Young can be selected in the middle rounds of a draft, which is where you typically win your fantasy league.

Young is a .300 career hitter with 158 HRs, and 811 rbi's, in 11 seasons with the Texas Rangers. At 34 years old and quickly approaching 2000 career hits (1,848), Young probably has another 3-4 solid seasons to offer another team. The Rangers have chosen to go the route of a very inconsistent and, at times, erratic Adrian Beltre at 3B. That was their call, and they have decided to roll the dice on Adrian Beltre. On the other hand, there are many MLB teams that would be happy to have a player like Young on their squad.

Over his 11-year MLB career, Young has won 1 Gold Glove, been selected as an All-Star 6 times, amassed 200+ hits in 5 consecutive seasons, and eclipsed 100 rbi once in '06. Is he a future Hall of Famer? Probably not. But, he is about as steady as an MLB player can be. He has played in 155 games or more in 8 of his last 9 seasons, has had 600+ AB's in 7 of his previous 8 seasons, and has hit 30 or more doubles in 8 consecutive seasons. Who else has done this over the past 8 seasons?

On one hand, the Rangers are taking a big risk by inserting Beltre into the lineup as their every-day 3B. On the other hand, another MLB team will be lucky to acquire Michael Young and to add him to their lineup. There's absolutely no risk in acquiring Young. Beltre, however, has been a model for inconsistency throughout his career. Beltre batted .240 in '03, jumped up to a career-high .334 in '04, and then dropped back down to .255 in '05. He hit 48 HRs in '04, 19 in '05, and then went back up to 25 in '06. So...which Adrian Beltre will show up in 2011? It's a risk, it's a gamble, and it's a big roll of the dice for the Texas Rangers. In conclusion, the team that gets Michael Young will know exactly what to expect...consistent production over a full season.

Finally, for all of you fantasy baseball players out there...do yourself a favor and pass on taking Adrian Beltre too early in your draft. I know that he was the top sleeper pick in 2010. In fact, he was on my championship team in 2010. After having a great season with the Red Sox in 2010, most fantasy owners will want to take him in the first few rounds, but you need to be cautious here. Josh Hamilton is injury-prone and has not played a full season since '08. Ian Kinsler has never played more than 144 games in a season and played in only 103 last season. Nelson Cruz played in only 108 games last season and has never played in more than 128 throughout his young career.

Who is going to protect Beltre in the lineup if these guys are not reliable? Well, Michael Young could have done that for the Rangers...but not now. Don't get me wrong, the Rangers showed what they could do when they were healthy in the post-season in 2010. In retrospect, Michael Young was the model of consistency for the Rangers in 2010, and throughout his career.

The Phenom

The Phenom's 1st Annual FSYA Award

The Phenom is happy to present the 1st Annual FSYA (Fantasy Stud of the Year Award) to...SIDNEY CROSBY!
Sidney Crosby, center for the Pittsburgh Penguins, has simply dominated the NHL in 2010. The first overall pick in the 2005 draft, the first overall pick in most fantasy drafts in 2010, and the top fantasy point producer, has simply been awesome! There is debate on whether Crosby is the best player in the NHL in comparison to Alex Ovechkin of the Capitals. However, in fantasy terms, Crosby is clearly the best! As the top goal-scorer in the NHL over the past two seasons, Crosby has proven that he is not just a goal-scorer as he has ranked in the top 5 in shots on goal (SOG) and assists in 2010. Congratulations to Sidney Crosby for winning the 1st Annual FSYA!
The Phenom's Fantasy Year in Review 2010
2010 was definitely the year of the sleeper pick. Those of you who were lucky, or smart, to acquire the likes of Michael Vick, Carlos Gonzalez, or Arian Foster, most likely went deep into your league's playoffs...and hopefully, you won a championship with these guys. I had Foster on my 14-2 football team that lost in the championship of my league. I also had Carlos Gonzalez (Cargo) on my fantasy baseball team that won the championship in 2010. Michael Vick was the 2nd string QB of the Eagles at the start of the season and was projected in the 250 range (which means that he mostly went undrafted). Michael Vick might turn out to be the greatest free agent pick up in the history of fantasy sports.
The fantasy year of 2010 also saw the usual suspects continue to produce great numbers. Aaron Rodgers finished the 2010 fantasy season as the #2 point producer, just barely behind Michael Vick, even though he missed a game and a half due to a concussion. Lebron James has dominated the NBA in fantasy points for a few years now and continues to play at an incredible pace. Miguel Cabrera continued to do his thing and solidified his place as a top 5 MLB fantasy pick in 2011. Prior to signing with the Boston red Sox, Carl Crawford did everything for the Rays in 2010, putting together a truly phenomenal fantasy season.
As you look towards 2011, it is very important that you add Vick, Gonzalez, and Foster to your top picks in 2011. These three have tremendous futures and are sure to repeat their successes of 2010. You must also determine which guys will consistently produce great fantasy numbers in 2011. Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Kevin Durant, Alex Ovechkin, Joey Votto, and Miguel Cabrera, are all no-brainers. The key to winning your fantasy league is to put together a team of top-producers, consistent producers, and of course...a few great sleepers. The middle rounds of your drafts is where championships are made. Try to figure out who might be the next big sleeper in the MLB, NFL, NHL, and NBA. You just might put together a championship team in 2011. Good luck!
The Phenom's Top 10 Fantasy Studs of 2010
1. Sidney Crosby (PIT/ NHL)
2. Carlos Gonzalez (COL/ MLB)
3. Lebron James (MIA/ NBA)
4. Michael Vick (PHI/ NFL)
5. Aaron Rodgers (GB/ NFL)
6. Miguel Cabrera (DET/ MLB)
7. Arian Foster (HOU/ NFL)
8. Carl Crawford (BOS/ MLB)
9. Alex Ovechkin (WAS/ NHL)
10. Kevin Durant (OKC/ NBA)

Good luck to all in 2011, and email me with any questions, comments, and suggestions!
The Phenomthephenom@fantasysportsphenom.com

SB XLV, NBA All-Stars, and MLB 1st Rounders

Super Bowl XLV

Super Bowl XLV is going to be an epic match-up of two of the most successful NFL franchises of all-time. The Packers have won 12 league championships (9 NFL Championships and 3 Super Bowl titles). The Steelers have won a league-leading 6 Super Bowls. Something must give here. I am predicting a 27-17 victory for the Packers for the following reasons:

1. Aaron Rodgers IS the best QB in the NFL and is only getting better. His pin-point accuracy, excellent decision-making, and tremendous athletic ability, make him one of the better QBs of our time. It is only a matter of time before people start including him in the same company as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. A Super Bowl victory on Sunday would put Rodgers in the discussion with Brady and Manning.
2. The Steelers offensive line is average at best, and below average without C Maurkice Pouncey (out due to a high ankle sprain). I would be very surprised if the Steelers ran the ball effectively versus the Packers' stellar defense. I expect the Packers' defense to create turnovers, get Big Ben on the run (which isn't really a horrible thing for the Steelers), and to stuff the run.
3. The Packers have better athletes at almost every position from QB to WR to DB to LB. They get to the ball fast. They make plays on defense. They have big physical receivers on offense. Their O line is massive. And, they have a QB that can run the ball pretty well.
4. Finally, the Packers have won 5 straight games by a total score of 145-71. The Steelers have not dominated anyone this season. Well, maybe Oakland, Carolina, and Cleveland, but those teams are non-playoff teams. The Packers are primed and ready to win their 13th league title and 4th Super Bowl Championship.

Packers 27, Steelers 17


The Phenom's Top 5 Fantasy NBA Players that did NOT make an All-Star Team

1. Monta Ellis/ GS: 10th overall fantasy producer in the NBA; 25.1 ppg, 5.6 apg, 3.4 rpg
2. LaMarcus Aldridge/ POR: 14 the overall producer; 21.2 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 1.3 bpg
3. Zach Randolph/ MEM:  16th overall producer; 20.2 ppg, 13.2 rpg
4. Raymond Felton/ NYK: 17th overall producer; 17.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 8.9 apg
5. Rudy Gay/ MEM: 18th overall producer; 20.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.9 apg

It is very difficult to argue against any player on the West All-Star roster, but Monta Ellis deserved a spot for sure. I'd say that Ellis deserved the spot more than Tim Duncan, based on this season's statistics. Duncan made the team simply due to his career achievements and his name. Ellis is 5th in the NBA in scoring (533 more points than Duncan)...I mean, c'mon!


MLB 2011 Top 5 Fantasy Draft Picks

1. Carlos Gonzalez/ COL
2. Albert Pujols/ STL
3. Miguel Cabrera/ DET
4. Troy Tulowitzki/ COL
5. Carl Crawford/ BOS

You might be wondering where Josh Hamilton is on this list. I think Hamilton could be the #1 fantasy producer in the MLB in 2011 IF...and only IF, he plays more than 150 games. Gonzalez, Cabrera, and Crawford will most likely play a full season, and will be at the top of the fantasy ranks throughout the season. On the other hand, if Pujols, Tulowitzki, and Hamilton stay relatively healthy, they could very well challenge for the top 3 in all of baseball.

The Phenom
thephenom@fantasysportsphenom.com
http://www.fantasysportsphenom.com/

Friday, February 4, 2011

The Phenom's Phenomenal Fantasy NFL Player of the Year for 2010!

2010 Phenomenal Fantasy NFL Player of the Year

...and the award goes to...ARIAN FOSTER!

Congratulations to Arian Foster for winning the highly-coveted "2010 Phenomenal Fantasy Player of the Year" in the NFL! Foster was typically selected in the middle rounds of most fantasy drafts back in September, but he quickly emerged as the top-producing player in the league. Most, if not all, teams that were fortunate enough to have Foster were able to make their league's playoffs, and many of them won league championships as well. Foster was the leading fantasy scorer in all leagues and in all formats. He was dominant from the beginning and will be a top three pick in next year's draft.

The Phenom's 1st annual NFL All-Pro Fantasy Team is obviously led by Arian Foster at the RB position, but we must not lose sight of the others. Michael Vick came out of nowhere, starting the season as the Eagles' #2 QB behind Kevin Kolb, and finished as the #2 overall fantasy point producer behind Foster. This was definitely the year of the "sleeper" as Peyton Hillis, Brandon Lloyd, Dwayne Bowe, LeSean McCoy, Marcedes Lewis, Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, and Darren McFadden, all made the Phenom's All-Pro team. Tom Brady edged out Drew Brees and Peyton Manning simply because Brady threw 34 TD's and only 4 INT's.

The Phenom's All-Pro Team

First Team
QB- Vick/ PHI
RB- Foster/ HOU
RB- McCoy/ PHI
WR- White/ ATL
WR- Lloyd/ DEN
WR- Bowe/ KC
TE- Witten/ DAL
DEF/ ST- New England
K- Akers/ PHI

Second Team
QB- Rodgers/ GB
RB- Hillis/ CLE
RB- McFadden/ OAK
WR- A. Johnson/ HOU
WR- C. Johnson/ DET
WR- Jennings/ GB
TE- Gates/ SD
DEF/ ST- Arizona
K- Janikowski/ OAK

Third Team
QB- Brady/ NE
RB- Peterson/ MIN
RB- Charles/ KC
WR- S. Johnson/ BUF
WR- Wallace/ PIT
WR- Nicks/ NYG
TE- M. Lewis/ JAX
DEF/ ST- Pittsburgh
K- J. Brown/ STL


The Phenom's Top 10 Picks for 2011
1. Vick/ PHI
2. Foster/ HOU
3. Peterson/ MIN
4. McCoy/ PHI
5. Rodgers/ GB
6. Hillis/ CLE
7. C. Johnson/ TEN
8. White/ ATL
9. Charles/ KC
10. A. Johnson/ HOU

The Phenom

thephenom@fantasysportsphenom.com
http://www.fantasysportsphenom.com/

Friday, January 28, 2011

The Phenom's NBA Fantasy All-Star Teams Unveiled!

Yes folks, it's that time of year. The Phenom's NBA Fantasy All-Star Teams have been selected. Once again, you must understand that each player has been selected to represent their conference based on fantasy value, not overall points. These are players that might have been middle-round draft selections and some that went undrafted. You will also see some superstars in the mix.

A drum roll please.......................

Western Conference
Starters
F- Kevin Love/ MIN
F- Blake Griffin/ LAC
C- Lamarcus Aldridge/ POR
G- Monta Ellis/ GS
G- Russell Westbrook/ OKC

Reserves
F/C- Luis Scola/ HOU
F- Manu Ginobili/ SA
G- Deron Williams/ UTA
F- Lamar Odom/ LAL
F- Zach Randolph/ MEM

Eastern Conference
Starters
F- Amare Stoudemire/ NYK
F- Al Horford/ ATL
C- Brook Lopez/ NJ
G- Derrick Rose/ CHI
G- Raymond Felton/ NYK

Reserves
G- Jrue Holiday/ PHI
F- Josh Smith/ ATL
F- Wilson Chandler/ NYK
C- Andray Blatche/ WAS
F/G- Lebron James/ MIA

If you were expecting to see Kobe, Durant, Howard, Anthony, Nash, Pierce, Paul, Parker, Wade, and Duncan, you came to wrong place. These guys are expected to produce, but have not lived up to their pre-season rankings. There is a definite youth movement in full swing in NBA fantasy basketball. In fact, the #1-fantasy producing player is just 22 years old (Kevin Love). Kevin Love, Blake Griffin, and Derrick Rose, all reside in the top 5 overall at the mid-point of the season. Griffin is 21 years old and Rose is 22, but they, along with Love, are dominating the fantasy ranks.

If you truly believe that someone got snubbed by The Phenom, please feel free to let him know.

The Phenom
thephenom@fantasysportsphenom.com
http://www.fantasysportsphenom.com/

Monday, January 24, 2011

The Phenom's MLB 2011 Pre-Season Fantasy All-Stars by Position

MLB
2011 Pre-season Fantasy All-Stars by Position

C- Mauer/ MIN: .327, 9 hrs - 75 rbi, in 2010; when healthy, Mauer is good for .340, 20 hrs - 100 rbi

1B- Cabrera/ DET: .328, 38 hrs - 126 rbi in 2010; Cabrera is due an MVP, he's about as consistent and healthy as they come.
2B- Cano/ NYY: .319, 29 hrs - 109 rbi in 2010; Cano emerged as the top-producing 2B in the MLB and should repeat in 2011.
SS- Tulowitzki/ COL: .315, 27 hrs - 95 rbi in just 122 g's in 2010; Tulo could win an MVP in 2011 if healthy.
3B- Beltre/ TEX: .321, 28 hrs - 102 rbi in 2010; Beltre should be huge in 2011 while hitting in the same lineup as Hamilton.
OF- Hamilton/ TEX: .359, 32 hrs - 100 rbi in 133 g's in 2010; Hamilton is the closest thing we have to Ted Williams, yeah I said it! 
OF- C. Gonzalez/ COL: .336, 34 hrs - 117 rbi, 26 sb's, 111 runs in 2010; Enough said! This guy is the real deal!
OF- Crawford/ BOS: .307, 19 hrs - 90 rbi, 47 sb's, 110 runs in 2010; This guy is a fantasy producing machine, and he won't stop!
SP- Halladay/ PHI: 21-10, 2.44 ERA, 219 k's in 2010; If the Phillies are healthier in 2011, Halladay could win 25, but at least 20.
RP- B. Wilson/ SF: 48 sv's, 1.81 ERA, 93 k's in just 74.2 Innings in 2010; Wilson should be good for another 40+ save season in 2011.

The Phenom

http://www.fantasysportsphenom.com/
thephenom@fantasysportsphenom.com

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Where's the Love...for Kevin Love?

Where is the love...for Kevin Love? Why aren't more people talking about this guy? Is it because he plays for a small market team in Minnesota? Is it because they have a record of 10-32 (as of 1/19/11)? Is it because they are a sure bet lottery team in the 2011 NBA draft?

I have many questions, but one thing is for sure. Kevin Love is the real deal. He's the real deal in the NBA, and he's the real deal in the fantasy realm.

As, by far, the best fantasy value player in the NBA, Love is currently the 2nd-best fantasy producer and only a mere 17 points behind Lebron James. In my opinion, Kevin Love is the best value fantasy player in any sport in recent years, but might also be the best value EVER! Let's look at the numbers.

Love is the top rebounder in the NBA with 659 rebounds, which is 141 more than the 2nd-best rebounder (Dwight Howard). If Howard is Superman, then what does that make Kevin Love? Love ranks 13th in the NBA in scoring with 892 points and well ahead of perennial all-stars like Carmelo Anthony (763), Paul Pierce (761), and Steve Nash (635).

Not only does Love dominate the key, he is also a tremendous scoring threat from the perimeter. Love is currently tied for 20th in the league with 59 three-pointers made. His ability to score from just about anywhere on the court and his domination of the paint clearly separates him from other power forwards like Blake Griffin (511 rebs., 4 three-pointers), Zach Randolph (484 rebs., 3 three-pointers), and Al Jefferson (360 rebs., 0 three-pointers). Love is just a different kind of power forward; one that we have not seen in the history of the NBA. Dirk Nowitzki is a great offensive weapon, can score from the perimeter, but is not in the same league as Love when it comes to controlling the boards. Charles Barkley controlled the boards his entire career and showed that he could score from the perimeter, but not at the pace that Love is on this season (Love has already made 59 three-pointers before the all-star break and Barkley eclipsed 59 three-pointers made in only two full seasons). Karl Malone, arguably the best power forward of all-time, very rarely shot three-pointers but could score from the perimeter. However, at the age of 22, Malone had 718 total rebounds in a full season while Love has 659 total rebounds at the half-way point of the season.

The best part about Love is that he is consistent. He started off the 2010-2011 season very strong and has produced at the most consistent pace among all NBA players thus far. In fact, Love is the 3rd-overall fantasy producer in the NBA over the past 30 days, and ahead of Kobe, Lebron, Wade, and Durant, during that stretch.

When you talk about fantasy value, you talk about what you had to give up in order to acquire a certain player. In Kevin Love's case, he was a 6th-8th round selection in most fantasy drafts in the fall of 2010. He wasn't even projected in the top 40 of most fantasy experts' pre-draft rankings. Well, look at him now. He is on pace to be the top-producing fantasy player in the NBA in 2010-2011. This makes him an automatic first round selection in the 2011 fantasy draft. This also makes him a front-runner for the Phenom's highly-coveted FSYA (Fantasy Stud of the Year) award for 2011.

One final note about Kevin Love....HE'S ONLY 22! Love is going to be around for a very long time in the NBA. He will most likely pull down a handful of rebounding titles, remain a top 10 fantasy selection in all formats, be a perennial all-star, and if he might get lucky by being traded to a title contender.

But, all of that being said...where is the love...for Kevin Love?

The Phenom
thephenom@fantasysportsphenom.com
http://www.fantasysportsphenom.com/