Saturday, February 5, 2011

Michael Young...the model of consistency

Why are the Texas Rangers shopping Michael Young? Well, the answer is simple. They just signed 3B Adrian Beltre and have plenty of DH prospects on their roster. Young would be sharing time with someone, which doesn't make a ton of sense to me. I mean...where is the loyalty to a guy that has been as consistent and faithful as any MLB player in recent history.

Apparently, the Rangers are looking to deal Young prior to the start of the 2011 season. In terms of fantasy value, Young is a solid 3B who can be counted on to produce a .300+ average, 20+ HRs, and 85-90 rbi's. Young is not a top 5 fantasy prospect by any means, but he is in the top 10. Young can be selected in the middle rounds of a draft, which is where you typically win your fantasy league.

Young is a .300 career hitter with 158 HRs, and 811 rbi's, in 11 seasons with the Texas Rangers. At 34 years old and quickly approaching 2000 career hits (1,848), Young probably has another 3-4 solid seasons to offer another team. The Rangers have chosen to go the route of a very inconsistent and, at times, erratic Adrian Beltre at 3B. That was their call, and they have decided to roll the dice on Adrian Beltre. On the other hand, there are many MLB teams that would be happy to have a player like Young on their squad.

Over his 11-year MLB career, Young has won 1 Gold Glove, been selected as an All-Star 6 times, amassed 200+ hits in 5 consecutive seasons, and eclipsed 100 rbi once in '06. Is he a future Hall of Famer? Probably not. But, he is about as steady as an MLB player can be. He has played in 155 games or more in 8 of his last 9 seasons, has had 600+ AB's in 7 of his previous 8 seasons, and has hit 30 or more doubles in 8 consecutive seasons. Who else has done this over the past 8 seasons?

On one hand, the Rangers are taking a big risk by inserting Beltre into the lineup as their every-day 3B. On the other hand, another MLB team will be lucky to acquire Michael Young and to add him to their lineup. There's absolutely no risk in acquiring Young. Beltre, however, has been a model for inconsistency throughout his career. Beltre batted .240 in '03, jumped up to a career-high .334 in '04, and then dropped back down to .255 in '05. He hit 48 HRs in '04, 19 in '05, and then went back up to 25 in '06. So...which Adrian Beltre will show up in 2011? It's a risk, it's a gamble, and it's a big roll of the dice for the Texas Rangers. In conclusion, the team that gets Michael Young will know exactly what to expect...consistent production over a full season.

Finally, for all of you fantasy baseball players out there...do yourself a favor and pass on taking Adrian Beltre too early in your draft. I know that he was the top sleeper pick in 2010. In fact, he was on my championship team in 2010. After having a great season with the Red Sox in 2010, most fantasy owners will want to take him in the first few rounds, but you need to be cautious here. Josh Hamilton is injury-prone and has not played a full season since '08. Ian Kinsler has never played more than 144 games in a season and played in only 103 last season. Nelson Cruz played in only 108 games last season and has never played in more than 128 throughout his young career.

Who is going to protect Beltre in the lineup if these guys are not reliable? Well, Michael Young could have done that for the Rangers...but not now. Don't get me wrong, the Rangers showed what they could do when they were healthy in the post-season in 2010. In retrospect, Michael Young was the model of consistency for the Rangers in 2010, and throughout his career.

The Phenom

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